The Waaayyyy Too Late March Newsletter

By Ross Silver, Chief Entertainment Officer (CEO) at Sylva Intl

BEND, OR / ACCESSWIRE / March 22, 2017 / It is March 22nd and I have been hearing it from those of you who are subscribers asking me if I am still alive as the newsletter has not been published. I am still alive, I just have had an insanely busy month with too much travel and not enough time to write. The equity markets have been full of tells over the past couple of months and one of the tells is that small cap is out and large cap is in, meaning the dam is about to break and the market will move considerably lower, right? Small caps have always been a bellwether for the broad market and when small cap liquidity evaporates (as it has) and stock prices move lower (most have) that means trouble, right? I say wrong and before you conventionalists start throwing stuff at your screen, hear me out. In the past 365 days, the Russell 2000 (the “small cap index”) is up a modest 25% (that is a joke, a 25% return is not modest it’s amazing) and is it out of line to say people are profit taking? I mean, if I am up 25%+ in any position I am 99.9% of the time taking profit taking unless I have incredible conviction in that name and I view the 25% as being just the beginning. When it comes to small cap stocks as a group, you are not the sharpest tool in the shed if you are not taking profits on a 25% gain FOR AN INDEX in 365 days, that is not be giving advice, that is me writing about common sense. So, I believe this is profit taking and any panic selling (which I love) that occurs is an opportunity, so have cash, always have cash!

Another tell I have noticed is just about every professional economist sees minimal downside risk and volatility for the foreseeable future. Well that is what they were saying in February and now some are revising their volatility prediction. I mean can these professional market experts blow any more in the wind with their predictions and “brilliance”? It seems like an economist putting their foot down and making a call is about as solid as a stack of feathers. I have stated that I am bullish and will remain a bull until equities as an asset (note the use of the word asset) class are less attractive than anything else. The Fed is working to make fixed income relevant again with rate hikes, like we saw last week, but until such time as rates are paying me at least 2% RISK FREE, how are you not in equities if you have investment income and only in equities? I am sure I will get some colorful emails from those of you reading this that are economics professors, economists and others that I argue with regarding this subject matter. For the record, I love the back and forth with those who think I have no idea what I am writing about, with that said the poking fun is always in fun but with a purpose to convince me. I can guarantee an email is being drafted right now by a prominent East Coast economics professor who believes fixed income remains an asset (again note the use of the word asset) class and one that needs to be invested in now per his thoughts as risk free yield is better than no yield. Sorry, minimal yield or anything less than 2% risk free (some would argue 3%) is negative yield in my book and anyone willing to invest in negative yields needs to be lobotomized.

Random Musings

I am becoming a politics junkie and it is mortifying. I find myself glued to the television any time our President aka the Donald speaks. To his credit, he called out our former President for spying on him and it looks like he was right. House Intel Committee Chair Devin Nunes today stated, “some of what I’ve seen seems to be inappropriate” as it related to Trump spying. Hello bombshell. I mean the political ramifications of espionage on Trump by the Obama White House are MASSIVE. The Democrats must be emptying the shelf of every store that sells heart burn medication. As for Russia and its interference in our election, can you name an election in any country that the U.S. or other countries have not tried to influence. I mean why are members of the media only focusing on Russia and why aren’t we looking at every Presidential election ever held in this country? I am more worried about lobbyists than Russia. Speaking of lobbyists, R.I.P to the EPA, those budget cuts were egregious in my view.

NCAA tourneys are in full swing and man is the tourney a lot of fun because the games all matter but the basketball is awful. The NCAA should really think about its brand because the product is awful. Watching 18 and 19 year old kids jack up threes incessantly and only make 30% of them is not fun to watch. Kentucky and Wichita St. in their last game collectively shot 42 three point shots and made 15 of those shots in total. That is garbage basketball. As for my pick in the tournament on who wins, I will steal a line from my Dad and say my pick to win is the team holding up the trophy in a couple of weeks!

I will be back in a couple of weeks with our letter for April, until then be well!

As for the list of companies to consider, insert the web address below for the area that suits your interest and you will find the companies we are following:

DJIA: https://sylvacap.com/dow-jones-featured-companies

Healthcare: https://sylvacap.com/healthcare-stocks

Retail: https://sylvacap.com/retail-stocks

Tech: https://sylvacap.com/technology-stocks

Resources (mining): https://sylvacap.com/resources-stocks

Disclaimers & Disclosures: For a full list of disclaimers and disclosures, please visit: https://sylvacap.com/disclaimer

Contact: info@sylvacap.com

SOURCE: Sylva International, LLC

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