Edison Issues Outlook on Carmat (ALCAR)

LONDON, UK / ACCESSWIRE / July 31, 2017 / Carmat (PARIS: ALCAR) resumed the EU pivotal trial of its artificial heart after addressing regulator concerns. We anticipate that the study could be completed in mid-2019, leading to a potential EU launch in 2020. The Carmat device could potentially fill a significant need among those waiting for human transplants and/or with terminal heart failure (HF) or acute myocardial infarction (MI). Our valuation is €627m, down from €747m previously.

We value Carmat using a risk-adjusted NPV approach, employing a 12.5% cost of capital. While we have slightly raised the target market size estimates, given the issues raised by regulators following the first patient’s death in the pivotal study and the pace of recruitment to date, we are applying a lower (25%) probability of success in the EU market (vs 35% previously). We now obtain an rNPV valuation of €627m, down from €747m previously. After including €18.1m estimated H117 net cash, we derive a per-share equity valuation of €106.98.

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